Well, Obama's already campaigning in Virginia...so that means it's not Kaine.
Based on this interview:
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/08/obamas_vp_the_candidate_drops.html
I think the favorite right now has to be Bayh. When he says that he's willing to take someone who complements him and sometimes disagrees with him, I think that refers to Bayh's executive experience and his decision on the Iraq war. Also, the talk of someone who's not into ego-boosting points to Bayh. Biden is too much of a loose cannon, and Obama has said before that he doesn't want extra foreign policy help.
So I'd give Bayh 80-20 odds right now.
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